Faculty Publication Forum (FPF)
Permanent URI for this communityhttps://cam-ed-oar.com/handle/123456789/57
Faculty Publication Forum (ISSN 3008-1017), also known as Faculty Publications, is a peer-reviewed, open access, scholarly periodical published continuously by CamEd Business School, with articles compiled into a single volume at the end of the year.
Browse
Search Results
Publication Macroeconomic Policies and Economic Growth of Cambodia during the COVID-19 Era(CamEd Business School, November 30, 2021) Sereyvath Ky; Siphat LimThe purpose of this research paper is to observe the most impacted sector among the three major contributors, including agricultural, manufacturing and service sectors on Cambodia economic growth. Additionally, the scenario analysis was employed to indicate the negative impact of the global widespread pandemic of Covid-19 on Cambodia economic growth. Responding to the research question, the VAR model which consists of the four endogenous variables, such as the real GDP growth rate, the growth rate of agricultural, the manufacturing and service sectors was run using the quarterly data from 2001:Q1 until 2019:Q4. The empirical result from the VAR model indicated that the industrial or manufacturing sector is the major contributor to Cambodia economic growth while agriculture and service respectively rank number two and three as the sectors influencing Cambodia economic growth. Furthermore, the scenario analysis indicated that in the case that all of the three sectors decrease by 5 percent quarterly for four quarters, Cambodia economic growth is expected to drop around 3.62 percent quarterly. Therefore, to minimize the impact of Covid-19 on Cambodia economic growth, the Royal Government of Cambodia is recommended to form the policy to support domestic manufacturing, especially the SMEs through increasing the regulation on the imported products that Cambodia can produce. The government should provide tax exemption and support to domestic manufacturers. Moreover, the government should provide financial and technical supports to the domestic manufacturers. Finally, the government should facilitate the improvement of the ability of domestic labor by providing vocational trainings.. Keywords: GDP; Covid-19; VAR Model; Scenario AnalysisPublication The Effect of Export on Economic Growth in Cambodia: Policy Formulation(CamEd Business School, November 30, 2021) Siphat LimThe empirical result of this research has indicated that Cambodian export has a statistical significant relationship with the gross domestic product in both short-term and long-term, based on the result of Engle-Granger co-integration test and the estimated result of the Error Correction Model (ECM). The economy of Cambodia is proven to remain vulnerable, if the export of the country is negatively affected by the external shock. The evidence of the scenario analysis has demonstrated that if the export of Cambodia declines by 10% in only a quarter, the expected future of gross domestic output is expected to drop on average by approximately 1.38% per quarter which is equivalent to around 5.65% per year. Prominently, the speed of adjustment is seen to be significantly as slow as 3.33% per quarter. The synchronized policy formulation from the interviewing of the Cambodian Economists and Policymakers has advocated that the increasing of the government expenditure in developing the infrastructures, expanding and strengthening the SMEs, developing human capital, and supporting the agriculture, especially, pledging to reduce the BBC to the lowest level is the prioritized strategic plan which has to be implemented by the Royal Government of Cambodia in the short-term, medium-term and long-term to prevent the possible future economic recession and depression due to the external shock as well as to increase the level of the country competitiveness in the global market. Keywords: Co-integration test, ECM, Speed of adjustment, Scenario analysis.Publication Applying Markowitz Portfolio Theory on Cambodia Securities Exchange(CamEd Business School, May 30, 2021) Siphat LimThis research bestows one of the most famous portfolio selection theories known as the Markowitz Portfolio Theory on Cambodia Securities Exchange. The result of the study indicates that in the case that short-selling is not prohibited, an optimal portfolio investment with the required rate of return of 20 percent per year is constructed through the long-position of FX and all of the securities listed in the CSX, such as stocks and bonds and the short-selling position of commodity goods, gold and crude oil. Long-position is applied only to all stocks and generates positive average annual return, while the assets, FX, gold, crude oil, and bond generates negative average annual return are not recommended to invest, in the case that short -selling is prohibited. The result of the survey on the undergraduate students majoring in accounting and finance reveals that the qualification of undergraduate students related to financial markets and financial instruments has a statistically significant relationship with the extent that lecturers or professors teach students how to apply financial theory in practice. Keywords: Markowitz Portfolio Theory; Cambodia Securities Exchange; SurveyPublication Commercial Banks’ Profitability Determinants in Cambodia: Fixed Effect and Random Effect(CamEd Business School, June 30, 2021) Siphat Lim; Casey BarnettCommercial Banks’ Profitability Determinants in Cambodia: Fixed Effect and Random EffectPublication Early Warning of Banks Failure in Cambodia: Cox’s Proportional Hazard Model(CamEd Business School, May 30, 2020) Siphat LimThis study uses CAMEL rating method which consists of five variables with the Cox’s Proportional Hazard model to predict the probability of survivor or stability rate of banks in Cambodia. The result indicates that capital adequacy and liquidity of the banks are the two main indicators explained the stability or survivor rate of banks. The predicted result of the Kaplan Meier Survivor shows that the stability of banking system in Cambodia is high in the short-run, but the instability of the financial system might occur in the long-run since the banks survivor rate is rather low. The result of survey reveals that about one third of the compliance based bankers has ever learned about CAMEL and only a few banks employ some methods or techniques in predicting the stability or survivor rate of the bank, while the early warning system of bank failure for the whole banking system does not really exist yet. Keywords: CAMEL; Cox’s Proportional Hazard; Kaplan Meier; Survey.Publication An Estimation of Term Structure of Interest Rates in the Cambodia Banking System(CamEd Business School, December 30, 2019) Siphat LimThe objective of this research was to study about the term structure of interest rate by applied the four best well known models: CKLS, Merton, Vasicek, and CIR models over the 1-month US dollar lending interest rate of banks in Cambodia. The estimated method of the employed models was GMM. The CKLS result supported the mean reversion effect, but had no evidence of the level effect, while the result of the Merton model had not support even the mean reversion effect, but the diffusion parameter was highly significant. The Vasicek and CIR models had a weakly support the mean reversion effect, but the diffusion parameters were highly significant. The survey result revealed that banks faced with high level of interest rate risk because of the pressure from high level of competition due to the current existing of large numbers of market players in banking industry. Keywords: Term structure of interest rate, CKLS, Merton, Vasicek, CIR, GMM, Survey.Publication Dollarization and the Perception of ASEAN Currency in Cambodia(CamEd Business School, June 30, 2019) Siphat LimThe Kalman filter was employed on one observed equation and two state space equations to predict the proportional coefficients which were used to estimate the amount of US Dollar circulation outside banks in Cambodia. The degree of dollarization was high as measure by DR4 indicator bounded in the range between 86 percent and 91 percent from 2010 to 2017. But as compare to GDP, the amount of US Dollar in circulation was rather low aim to the increase in foreign currency deposits. The result of survey from 530 respondents indicated that most of the people’s income earned in US Dollar and which turned into the purchase of goods and services in the markets were mainly conducted in US Dollar. Not many people known about the present of the South East Asia Central Bank (SEACEN), but surprising result had revealed that 72.64 percent of the respondents chose ASEAN currency, while 27.36 percent chose US Dollar. Keywords: Kalman filter, Dollarization, DR4, SEACEN and ASEAN Currency.Publication The Behavior of Students in the Economics Class at CamEd Business School(CamEd Business School, June 30, 2018) Siphat LimThis study aimed to investigate the behavior of the students in the economics class, such as reading, the preparation of the students before and after each session. A quantitative research was employed in this study to collect the data from 250 students who studied Microeconomics and are currently studying Macroeconomics. The study found that the reading habit of the respondents have changed after studying at CamEd, but the total reading hours is still rather low. The macroeconomics textbook which is currently used in macroeconomics class was rather difficult in matching the competency of the respondents since the level of understanding in Mathematics of most of the respondents is average. The correlation between level of understanding of Mathematics of the respondents and the level of understanding of Macroeconomics subject was found in this study with 1 percent significant level.Publication The Volatility of the CSX Index: GARCH(1,1) Model(CamEd Business School, June 30, 2017) Siphat LimThis study was conducted to predict the conditional variance as well as the volatility of the return of the CSX Index by employing the GARCH(1,1) model with daily data from 19 April 2012 to 12 June 2017. The estimated result of the GARCH(1,1) model which was derived by the maximum likelihood estimation method had revealed that the conditional variance was highly explained by the lagged of square residual as well as the lagged of forecast variance and no ARCH effect was found in this study. The explosive process did not exist, but a mean reverting variance process was detected since the persistence, 𝛼𝛼 + 𝛽𝛽 < 1. The long-run daily volatility was estimated to be 1.349403% per day or 21.42% per year. Keywords: CSX Index; GARCH(1,1); Conditional Variance; Volatility.