Vol 2, No 1, January - June 2025

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    How the Shifting Landscape of Global Trade May Affect Small Developing Economies
    (June 1, 2025) Michael Pettis
    As tensions in global trade continue to intensify, the world finds itself in a period of strategic recalibration. The ongoing economic rivalry between the United States and China—often referred to as the “trade war”—has evolved far beyond tariffs. It now encompasses strategic decoupling, supply chain reconfiguration, technology bans, export controls, and capital flow restrictions. While these maneuvers are framed as geopolitical chess moves between two superpowers, their consequences ripple far beyond the primary actors, often landing most heavily on smaller, developing economies like Cambodia. At first glance, a global decoupling of supply chains and the weakening of trade ties between major economies might appear to offer new opportunities for low-income countries. Southeast Asia in particular has seen growing interest as an alternative production hub. However, the reality is more complicated. For economies like Cambodia the disruption of global trade norms presents both opportunities and serious risks.